Dynamic probability assessment of urban natural gas pipeline accidents considering integrated external activities

Urban gas pipelines usually have high structural vulnerability due to long service time. The locations across urban areas with population density make the easily exposed external activities. Recently, may also been target of terrorist attacks. Nevertheless, intentional damage, i.e. attack, was seldom considered in previous risk analysis pipelines. This work presents a dynamic activities pipelines, which integrates unintentional and damage unified framework. A Bayesian network mapping from Bow-tie model is used represent evolution process pipeline accidents initiating hazards. probabilities basic events safety barriers are estimated by adopting Fuzzy set theory hierarchical (HBA). developed enables assessment consequences identifies most credible contributing factors risk, given observed evidence. It captures both data uncertainties. Eventually, an industrial case presented illustrate applicability effectiveness methodology. that proposed methodology helps more accurately conduct management natural